The Rate Guy
By JP Conklin
The Rate Guy Podcast is hosted by JP Conklin of Pensford. It's an irreverent insight into interest rates and current markets and how they impact the Commercial Real Estate and Multifamily industries.
Latest episode
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The Uncertainty Bends
This week’s episode explores The Uncertainty Bends™—a not-so-scientific condition where markets, like vacationers, decompress too fast and suffer the consequences. With consumer confidence plunging, discretionary spending slowing, and the Fed... -
Is the Labor Market the Frog in the Boiling Pot of Water?
On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk tariffs, recession, GDP and of course Jobs, and why the number may be scarier that we think. Here is the that JP references as well as the sweet cardboard cut out of Saquon leaping backwards over J.... -
DOGE Impact on NFP and the UR
What if the Fed's inflation target was a range of 2%-3% instead of a hard 2%? Would the market be as anxious? Core PCE is at 2.6%—inflation may not be fully defeated, but it’s contained enough for the Fed to shift focus. Meanwhile, money supply is... -
59 Reasons the T10 Will Fall to 4%
On this episode of The Rate Guy we lay out two lists. The first is our Top 10 favorite things from going to the Super Bowl. And then 59 reasons why the 10 Yr Treasury will fall to 4%. All of the reasons may or may not be directly related, but you can… -
If Markets Played in The Superbowl
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the Eagles vs. Chiefs showdown—and why it’s a brutal matchup for the Birds. But we also talk about the games market parallels! Mahomes = Inflation. Refs = Tariffs. Hurts = GDP. Jake Elliott = The 10-Year... -
DJT, Jerry Jones, and The Real JP Walk Into a Bar...
On this episode of The Rate Guy podcast we talk about 47's effect on rates, what to expect at this week's Fed meeting and of course a little bit of playoff football. This one's short and sweet because JP's is just too hype for the Eagles game. Go Bir… -
No, the Fed is Not Hiking This Year
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss inflation data and an interest rate outlook for 2025. -
Rate Cuts Aren't Causing a Surge
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk the latest jobs report, challenging the narrative that the economy is overheating. We also break down this week’s inflation data and what it could mean moving forward. We also explore a possible rebuilding... -
Lead Pipe Lock Guarantees for 2025
On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP makes his lead pipe lock guarantees for 2025. We also take a look at his 2024 forecast and analyze what he got right and what was a big miss. Thanks for listening this year! We'll see you in 2025 as we kick off our… -
'Twas the Night Before FOMC
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what to expect at this week's FOMC meeting and recite JP's Interest Rate spin on 'Twas The Night Before Christmas. JP will send out a newsletter Wednesday with his analysis of the meeting. If you'd like...
