NAB Morning Call

Will US jobs survive the tariff war?

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Monday 5th May 2025

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There was a risk-on Friday, as the price of equities rose, and repricing of Fed rate cut expectations saw bond yields rising too.  NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there are two reasons for this optimism. First, the continued hope that some sort of truce will be found in the tariff war between the US and China, and secondly the strength in the labour market demonstrated in non-farm payrolls on Friday. The cautionary note is that this report is based on jobs held just a few days after ‘Liberation Day’. Still, no rush yet for the Fed to cut rates, hence the repricing. It was the opposite story  in Australia on Friday, where a surprise plateauing of retail sales reinforces the need for a cut at the next RBA meeting, as well as raising the case for successive cuts this year. 

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