The Solid Verbal College Football

The Luckiest Teams & the Future of College Football with Bill Connelly

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Episode notes

In this college football podcast episode, Dan is joined by ESPN’s Bill Connelly to dive into the mysterious world of college football luck—turnovers, close games, and injuries—that shaped 2024 and could define 2025. From Clemson’s run to Auburn’s bad breaks, Bill talks through the numbers and what they mean for teams ranging from Alabama to UCF. Plus, a deep dive into Clemson’s top-five potential, the chaotic state of the sport, and Bill’s upcoming book, Forward Progress. Plus, Bill’s Japan travel tips, from Kit Kats to Kyoto.

Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:05 - Luck in 2024 College Football: Clemson, Auburn, Alabama, and More

25:29 - Clemson’s 2025 Outlook: Top-Five Hype or Bust?

30:40 - Predictive Metrics and the Chaos of Modern CFB

31:47 - Bill’s Book: Forward Progress and CFB’s Future

42:29 - Is CFB Too Far Gone for Unity?

50:28 - Bill’s Japan Trip: Tokyo, Kyoto, and Kit Kats

Key Topics Discussed

  • Defining Luck in College Football: Explore Bill’s methodology for quantifying turnover luck, close-game outcomes, and injury luck in 2024.
  • Clemson’s Fortunate 2024: Discuss Clemson’s extreme turnover luck, returning production, and why Bill hesitates on their top-five hype for 2025.
  • Auburn and Alabama’s Bad Breaks: Analyze Auburn’s catastrophic close-game losses and Alabama’s unlucky 2024, with potential for 2025 rebounds.
  • UCF and Washington’s Turnaround Potential: Highlight UCF and Washington as teams that underperformed statistically but could surge in 2025.
  • Injury Luck and Lineup Stability: Examine how teams like Penn State and Purdue’s roster stability (or lack thereof) impacted their seasons.
  • The Future of College Football: Dive into Bill’s book, Forward Progress, and the structural issues—realignment, TV contracts, and no commissioner—driving CFB’s chaos.
  • Jim Delany’s Role in Modern CFB: Debate whether Delany, as Big Ten commissioner, set the stage for today’s superconferences and realignment.
  • Bill’s Japanese Adventure: Get Bill’s tips for Tokyo, Osaka, and Kyoto, plus weird Kit Kats.


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